Few in the world anticipated the return of Trump as much as the Arab Gulf states. A transactional leader, guided by a refreshingly non-ideological pragmatism, the patron of a medieval court staffed with obedient loyalists, a businessman who is eager to sell regional policy to the highest bidder. Yet, Trump enters his second term at a time of tectonic shifts in the Middle East. The United States’ commitment and strategic depth in the region is at the weakest in decades – arguably America’s ability and willingness to shape the region has not been in question since it decided to intervene to defend Kuwait’s independence against Iraq in 1990.

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