A discussion forum on Turkish-African relations was held in Istanbul on December 12, 2024. The event was co-organized by the African Center for Research and Policy Studies (AfroPolicy) and the Global Institute for Strategic Research (GISR) at Hamad Bin Khalifa University (HBKU). The forum explored a wide range of key topics related to diplomatic relations between Turkey and the African continent, with a focus on geopolitical, geoeconomic, military, security, and cultural dimensions. It provided a valuable platform to assess the evolving dynamics of Turkish-African relations in light of both the challenges and opportunities emerging from the African continent. The event brought together academics, experts, and researchers to discuss key developments in the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, as well as security-related aspects of Turkey-Africa engagement. The discussions focused on four main dimensions and featured contributions from both in-person participants and remote speakers joining from Doha, including representatives from the Global Institute for Strategic Research (GISR) and the Qatari Ministry of Interior

The current international order is analogous to the one before the Second World War, which Antonio Gramsci, in 1929, described aptly in the following words: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.” The international rules-based world order established after the Second World War is similarly struggling to survive, and the new order has yet to emerge. Skepticism about NATO and US leadership is likely to significantly impact the emergence of the new order in the Middle East. There are signs that countries such as Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are looking for alternative alliances in Asia, such as BRICS and SCO, which still appear to be in their nascent phase. Syria will be a litmus test for Turkey in the region, but the situation in Syria, with the involvement of multiple regional and global actors and the multi-ethnic fabric of the country, does not bode well for the Syrian project post-Assad. The developments in Syria will play a significant role in determining the trajectory of the future Middle East order

Few in the world anticipated the return of Trump as much as the Arab Gulf states. A transactional leader, guided by a refreshingly non-ideological pragmatism, the patron of a medieval court staffed with obedient loyalists, a businessman who is eager to sell regional policy to the highest bidder. Yet, Trump enters his second term at a time of tectonic shifts in the Middle East. The United States’ commitment and strategic depth in the region is at the weakest in decades – arguably America’s ability and willingness to shape the region has not been in question since it decided to intervene to defend Kuwait’s independence against Iraq in 1990.

The discussion, titled “Geopolitical Implications of the 2024 US Elections,” explored the global geopolitical and geoeconomic implications of the outcome of the upcoming elections in the United States, especially those relating to the Arab region. The key takeaways from the discussion are mentioned below. Unlike most of the earlier ones, the current US elections are significantly influenced by foreign policy matters. The Arab-American constituency could tip the balance in a deeply divided country fighting a closely contested election. Overall, the region, and especially Palestine, will experience a soft landing if Harris is elected, while they are likely to get a shock if Trump wins. Trump has already been paid for facilitating Israel’s next move in Palestine, which will be the annexation of the West Bank.

This paper will examine state of the relationship between Western powers and the Middle East. It looks at the nature and future of these relationships and in particular two case studies – Palestine and Syria. It will assess the challenges facing these relationships and what possible options varying parties have. To understand the interplay between Western nations and Middle East powers, it is essential to understand the broader dynamics that shape policy. For Middle Eastern powers, before they determine their relationships with Western powers, a whole series of other factors are considered, including domestic opinion, the economy, and relationships with major non-Western actors like Russia, India, and China. For Western powers, the Middle East may not always rank as their topmost priority. For Europe, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has tended to dominate their thinking since 2022. The United States (US) has since the time of President Obama talked of a pivot to Asia even if that has not always materialized. In a period of economic downturn, increasing trade will top the agenda as opposed to conflict resolution and human rights.  Disclaimer:The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position nor the views or opinions of the Global Institute for Strategic Research (GISR).    

This forum was the third in the series on the forward path for Syria; the earlier two were held in Doha in February 2025 and in Rome in May 2025. The first forum was organised by GISR in the immediate aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime and brought together experts from the Syrian diaspora. The overwhelming consensus that emerged from this discussion was that Syria should lead and be given the agency to shape its destiny as it moves forward. The second forum was jointly organised by GISR and the Italian think tank Med-OR on the heels of US President Donald Trump’s maiden visit to the Middle East in his second term, and focused on the European perspective on developments in Syria. The common sentiment that emerged from this discussion was that the current leader, Ahmad Al Sharaa, is best placed to lead the embattled country and must receive the full backing of the West. The most recent forum in Washington, jointly organised by GISR and Stimson Centre, and the focus of this report, follows the historic UN speech of Ahmad Al Sharaa, the first by a Syrian head of State in 60 years. It brought together senior officials from Syria’s new administration, regional diplomats, and international policy experts, primarily from the United States, to build further on the earlier two events on the optimal path for Syria to build its foundations to address the multifaceted political, security, economic, and social challenges besieging the country.

As a signatory, Israel is already bound by the 1948 Genocide Convention. The question is whether their actions currently constitute Genocide. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) Order for Provisional Measures makes clear that Israel must abide by the Convention and specifically calls on Israel to ensure it does not commit killing, serious bodily or mental harm, imposition of life conditions to bring about physical destruction or imposing of measures to prevent births with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group. The ICJ Order provides yet another leverage point for highlighting the human toll of the Gaza violence. It is a direct outcome of the failure of the UN system, especially the UN Security Council, to respond to the aggression in Gaza. However, in the absence of practical outcomes resulting from the ICJ Order, the Gaza conflict will continue to undermine trust in the international system. Without the political will to halt arms shipments, recognise Palestinian statehood and human rights, an increase in regional instability with potentially apocalyptic outcomes remains.

The label and language of state fragility has become a prominent feature of contemporary international development assistance and multilateral interventions. This paper will provide an overview of the different elements that have gone into the concept of fragility, its meaning, use, and measurement. There are three key points for reflection on the future use of a fragility framework for policy-making and programming: it should be nuanced, context-specific, and not overgeneralized.

While peace agreements are frequently symbolized by handshakes, their implementation and the broader goal of sustaining peace present formidable challenges. Despite the extensive efforts and substantial time invested in negotiations, violence often persists, and peace agreements routinely struggle to be put into action. In these contexts, sustaining peace can seem remote and, at times, insurmountable.This White Paper, associated with this summary by the Global Institute for Strategic Research (GISR) in Qatar, critically examines the reasons why peace agreements falter and explores the role of design, capacity, and political will. It highlights the importance of understanding the wider environments that characterize and shape peace processes and reflects on implementation mechanisms and wider cross- cutting issue areas, where promising practices are evolving to address the shifting landscapes of peace agreement implementation, its aftermath and sustainability.

Arab countries have made great progress in planning large hydrogen projects. The last meeting of the UN Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP27) in Egypt and the preparation of the coming one in Abu Dhabi (COP28) have had a highly stimulating effect: Egypt is now ranked as the largest destination for foreign direct investment in hydrogen mega projects, and Abu Dhabi has tripled its plans in the field of renewable energy in the run-up to COP28. The planned hydrogen projects in Arab countries have reached a volume comparable to those in OECD countries. Qatar is moving in a somewhat different direction as it concentrates on prolonging its success with LNG exports.

Qatar witnessed a momentous year in 2022, with the successful organization of the FIFA World Cup. Additionally, the gas price surge caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in Qatar attaining its highest financial revenues since 2014. As the largest exporter of LNG globally, Qatar’s geopolitical position was bolstered and increased its influence in the global energy landscape.The war in Ukraine has impacted global energy security and has highlighted the importance of diversifying energy supplies and investing in LNG infrastructure to ensure energy security. This led to a strategic shift in energy policies and investments toward LNG.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century, with the potential to revolutionize nearly every sector from healthcare to transportation. However, AI also raises complex questions about governance, ethics, societal impact, and geopolitical dynamics. As countries around the world develop strategies to capitalize on AI’s opportunities while mitigating risks, evidence-based policy-relevant research informed by strategic foresight is imperative.Against this backdrop, the Global Institute for Strategic Research (GISR) at Hamad Bin Khalifa University (HBKU) has produced this White Paper on the Strategic Implications of Artificial Intelligence. GISR provides independent, interdisciplinary analysis aimed at enhancing the ability of decision makers in Qatar and the Arab region to address pressing global challenges.

From confronting climate change and extreme forms of poverty to protracted conflict and the erosion of human rights, effective international cooperation represents both a moral and practical imperative. Given these colossal challenges, the coming together of world leaders in New York at this month’s SDG Summit and next year’s Summit of the Future is both timely and critical. With only 15 percent of the Sustainable Development Goals’ targets on track this decade (and over 500 million people still likely to live in extreme poverty by 2030), achieving success in both summits depends on the identification and pursuit of the deep and varied connections between them.

As AI Systems get rapidly integrated into our daily lives, there is an urgent need to create a governance structure to regulate their deployment and use. The impact of AI on the future of human civilization will potentially be larger than the industrial revolution at the turn of nineteenth century and the information revolution that commenced in the late twentieth century. AI technology is on an exponential trajectory of change and might escape human comprehension and control if safety and human alignment are not built into their design and deployment.